2009 NBA Playoff Predictions
Another NBA regular season comes to a close, and it was a good one. The playoff picture looks exciting as well. I’m actually predicting that a seven seed will make their conference final. I can’t wait to see it. Picks and explanations follow:
Round One:
Starting in the Eastern Conference:
1. Cleveland(#1) vs. Detroit(#8) – Cleveland is going to be way too much for Detroit in this one. Something tells me that Detroit is already looking forward to the cap space created by the Iverson deal and a few other things (expiring Sheed contract, etc) – something like $22M for next season. That should buy them some coachable talent. Right now, they have some talent (mostly in the form of players that have left their best days behind them), plenty of ego, but no chemistry. Cleveland could sit Lebron and Mo Williams and take this series without much difficulty.
Prediction: Cleveland in 4
2. Boston(#2) vs. Chicago (#7) – Boston is missing Kevin Garnett and I think it’s going to prove to be too much to overcome. The Bulls seem to be coming together, and I think Derrick Rose is going to have a special series. It’s not going to be easy, but I expect a Bulls win.
Prediction: Chicago in 6
3. Orlando(#3) vs. Philadelphia(#6) – Philadelphia just isn’t very good. Orlando is. Also, Orlando has overcome a lot of adversity this year showing that they have the talent and heart to win this very easy opening round series.
Prediction: Orlando in 5
4. Atlanta(#4) vs. Miami(#5) – I really wish they could both win. I like watching each of them and they could provide some later round excitement in another situation. Unfortunately this time, they’re fighting to be the team taken out in Round 2 by the Cavs. I’m going to go with Miami in a hard-fought series. I think that Dwayne Wade will drag them to victory. He’s been doing it all season. This first round loss will be no negative mark against the Hawks though, they’re just going to find out how tough it is to beat D Wade.
Prediction: Miami in 7
And in the Western Conference…
1. Los Angeles (#1) vs. Utah (#8) – Utah’s having an off season. I don’t think it matters anyway, LA is going to steam roll through the West anyhow. Easy victory.
Prediction: LA in 5
2. Denver(#2) vs. New Orleans (#7) – Here’s the thing: Chris Paul is really good. The question is … is he good enough to take out Denver with, let’s say, less than adequate players around him? I think there’s a chance. The Hornets are a better free throw shooting team. This has a chance to be key in a series between these teams. Denver wasn’t a whole lot better during the regular season – they finished five games better than the Hornets. It’s going to be hard fought, but I’m going with the Hornets.
Prediction: New Orleans in 7
3. San Antonio (#3) vs. Dallas (#6) – This one’s simple for me. The Spurs are without Manu Ginobli, and Dallas is pulling it all together down the stretch. San Antonio will pull two victories from all of the championship experience that they have, but will fall short.
Prediction: Dallas in 6
4. Portland (#4) vs. Houston (#5) – I don’t think Portland is there yet. They’re going to own the future in the West. Someday. For now, I’m predicting that Houston will get out of the first round for the first time since they drafted T Mac … without T Mac. Good on you, Ron Artest.
Prediction: Houston in 6
Round Two:
In the Eastern Conference …
1. Cleveland (#1) vs. Miami (#5) – This series is going to be epic. Lebron and D Wade will do battle to see who gets to advance to the next round. Depth will be the key for the Cavaliers as the superstars essentially cancel one another out. Cleveland has enough players that they don’t really lose anything by having anyone (except Lebron) on the bench. Miami won’t be able to compete with that. I think Cleveland wins relatively quickly, but that it’s closer than the count suggests. Look for Miami to be a larger threat each year as Michael Beasley develops.
Prediction: Cleveland in 5
2. Orlando(#3) vs. Chicago(#7) – This is where the Derrick Rose little-engine-that-could runs out of steam. This series will be an awesome showcase for Rose and some of the younger talent the Bulls have. They’ll be a force given a few more pieces, time, and a better coach. Orlando just has too much experience and too many weapons.
Prediction: Orlando in 6
In the Western Conference …
1. Los Angeles (#1) vs. Houston(#5) – This is where post-season life returns to normal in Houston. The Lakers are going to shellac them. I’m not sure they’ll even bother to show up for game four. This still though, will be better than another post-season with T Mac.
Prediction: LA in 4
2. Dallas(#6) vs. New Orleans(#7) – This battle of improbables is going to go to New Orleans. I think Chris Paul will be able to overpower the aging, and by this point tired and flagging, Mavs. So the “I got my ass handed to me in the Western Conference Finals” t-shirt will be waiting for the Hornets.
Prediction: New Orleans in 7
Semi-Finals
In the Eastern Conference…
1. Cleveland(#1) vs. Orlando(#3) – Cleveland is going to use this series to send a message to the Lakers.
Reasons they’re going to stomp Orlando:
1. Depth – they’ve had injury problems like everyone else this season, but it’s never held the Cavs back. They have that much talent.
2. Chemistry – Cleveland has some of the best chemistry in the league. The players all seem to create for one another and get into each other’s successes. There’s only one really selfish shooter on the team (Daniel Gibson).
3. Defense – Cavs have some of the best defense in the league. They even defend the three point line well, which should prove troubling to Orlando.
4. 3 Pointers – Orlando relies too much on them. Streaks and inconsistency will lead to problems that they can’t overcome.
5. Talent – Their talent is just overwhelming. Lebron, Mo Willaims, Big Z … it’s going to be a bloodbath.
Prediction: Cleveland in 4
In the Western Conference …
1. Los Angeles(#1) vs. New Orleans(#7) – This one continues the theme of the Lakers facing no real challenges before the Finals. They have too much depth and talent to lose to the Hornets. The Hornets go home happy though having maxmized their talents and abilities better than anyone could’ve expected.
Prediction: LA in 5
The Finals
1. Cleveland(#1) vs. Los Angeles(#1) – The series that everyone has been waiting for delivers. Most people have been predicting this result for a good portion of the season. Kobe and Lebron will duel. Lebron will come out on top.
Cleveland wins because:
1. Lebron’s game is more complete. He’s one of the most well-rounded players ever. Kobe falls short.
2. The Cavs defense is too strong.
3. The Cavs are much tougher. The games will be physical and (as Boston showed us last year) LA can’t stand up to that.
4. Lebron and his teammates want it more. Lebron’s focused on the single goal. His teammates know that winning will keep him there. Simple.
Both of these teams will fight hard and perform quite well, but the Cavs will come out on top.
Prediction: Cavs in 6
It’s going to be a great post-season. I can’t wait to see Lebron holding the trophy at the end of it. He’ll certainly deserve it.
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